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FEBRUARY 6,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

THE GOP DEBATE – Tonight's GOP debate from New Hampshire was alive and vicious.  Eyes were on Marco Rubio, to see if he could continue the momentum he established in Iowa.  Rubio stumbled in the first part of the debate, under sustained attack by Chris Christie and others, but regained his footing later.  He didn't help himself and may have been hurt.  Some are calling this the "governors' debate" because the governors, present and former – Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Jeb Bush – had their best debate nights.Ben Carson was barely a factor and should drop out.  Ted Cruz, triumphant in Iowa, knows that New Hampshire is not friendly territory, and held his own.  Frontrunner Donald Trump neither helped nor hurt himself.  If you like Donald, he was fine.  If you don't like him, he was obnoxious.  The voting is Tuesday.  Last polls come out Monday.  It's up to the people. 

ISIS ISN'T ISLAMIC, KERRY SAYS – This will come as a surprise to ISIS fighters.  From Daily Caller:   At a conference in Rome of coalition members tasked with fighting ISIS, Secretary of State John Kerry said members of the terrorist organization are not Muslims but apostates of Islam.  “Daesh [ISIS] is in fact nothing more than a mixture of killers, of kidnappers, of criminals, of thugs, of adventurers, of smugglers and thieves,” Kerry said. “And they are also above all apostates, people who have hijacked a great religion and lie about its real meaning and lie about its purpose and deceive people in order to fight for their purposes.”  Kerry, like Obama, lets the Muslim world off the hook.  Not a good idea.  They're the ones primarily responsible for fighting ISIS.

WELL TIMED – As Woody Allen said, half of life is showing up.  From PJMedia.com:   An Australian woman whose partner of 10 years paid a hit team to murder her shocked the man by showing up at her own funeral.  Noela Rukundo's story is the stuff of a Lifetime miniseries. But it's the reaction of her husband when he saw her after believing she was dead that is more priceless than anything MasterCard can come up with.  Finally, she spotted the man she’d been waiting for. She stepped out of her car, and her husband put his hands on his head in horror.  “Is it my eyes?” she recalled him saying. “Is it a ghost?”  “Surprise! I’m still alive!” she replied.  The husband got nine years for incitement to murder.  There is no word on whether the wife got a reality show.

February 6, 2016       Permalink

NOTHING TO SEE, NOTHING TO SEE – AT 10:50 A.M. ET:  While we are focusing on our election, the enemies of the West are active.  But it is so rude to point this out.  From Fox:   

The German national security service warned Friday that Islamic State militants are infiltrating Europe under the guise of asylum seekers.

The announcement comes after Berlin police arrested three Thursday in an investigation of four Algerian men who are suspected of planning terror attacks in Germany and having ISIS ties.

“We have seen repeatedly that terrorists are being smuggled in disguised or camouflaged as refugees,” said Hans-Georg Maassen, the head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, according to the UK Daily Telegraph.

German authorities have tried to downplay the threat of Islamic State terrorists disguising themselves as refugees, according to the paper. Around one million asylum-seekers entered the country last year. Maasen reiterated that it was a “reality that the security agencies have to face.”

Maasen told Germany’s ZDF TV it was clear from November’s Paris terror attacks that “ISIL consciously infiltrates terrorists among the refugees.” A woman, who claimed to have led Abdelhamid Abaaoud’s cousin to the French encampment where he was staying, told The Wall Street Journal that the Paris attacks leader came into Europe with 90 other militants.

German authorities believe the four men who were investigated Thursday had contacts with ISIS and that at least one of them had received military training in Syria. The arrests were made in Berlin at a refugee home and were based on existing warrants in other cases.

A woman was arrested on a separate woman and is believed to be the wife of one of the men with possible ISIS ties, according to the UK Daily Telegraph.

Maassen said there was “concrete evidence there are people planning terror attacks in Germany,” but there’s “no indication of an imminent attack.”

COMMENT:   They always assure us that there's no indication of an imminent attack.  But the attacks occur.  There was no warning in Paris, either.  Or in San Berndardino.

February 6, 2016        Permalink

A SUPER BOWL GREETING FROM NORTH KOREA? – AT 10:28 A.M. ET:  North Korea has accelerated its preparations for a new rocket test.   The vehicle could be launched just before our Super Bowl kickoff Sunday.  I wouldn't put it past them.  From Reuters:

North Korea could launch a rocket that it says will carry an earth observation satellite as soon as Sunday, after bringing forward and shortening the time frame for the launch, the Japanese and South Korean governments said on Saturday.

North Korea had earlier told the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) it would launch the rocket some time between Feb. 8 and Feb. 25, triggering international opposition from governments that see it as a long-range missile test.

Japan and South Korea said North Korea had issued a Notice to Airmen that the launch would take place some time between Sunday and the following Sunday, Feb. 14. The IMO, a United Nations agency, also said on Saturday it had received a notification from North Korea of the change.

Isolated North Korea says it has a sovereign right to pursue a space program. But it is barred under U.N. Security Council resolutions from using ballistic missile technology.

Tension has been high on the Korean peninsula following the North's fourth nuclear test, on Jan. 6. A rocket test now would compound fears about North Korea putting a nuclear warhead on a missile that could reach not only South Korea and Japan but possibly even the west coast of the United States.

North Korea last launched a long-range rocket in December 2012, sending into orbit an object it described as a communications satellite.

The new time frame was set amid rising expectations that a launch was likely to happen soon, with U.S. government sources on Friday saying North Korea could be ready by the U.S. Super Bowl kickoff on Sunday, which will be Monday in Korea.

COMMENT:  Sticking it in America's eye is a North Korean specialty.  And they know there'll probably be no penalty, not with Barack Obama in office. 

Maybe the rocket will veer outside the goalposts.  Perfect football.

February 6,  2016     Permalink

DEMS IN A PANIC – ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  I don't see Democratic mobs panicking in the streets – the Dems I know are probably shopping at Saks – but inside the party there is clear concern that Hillary Clinton is in serious trouble, and that Bernie Sanders is too far left to be elected president.  Alternatives please?  From Reuters: 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A prominent Democratic donor worried about the party's chances of winning the presidency emailed dozens of fans of Vice President Joe Biden on Friday, urging them to remain prepared to donate if Biden jumps into the race.

The donor, Bill Bartmann, cited new polling showing Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont nearly tied with the Hillary Clinton, eroding the 30-point lead the former secretary of state held at the end of last year. Bartmann and other party insiders are concerned that Sanders, a self-proclaimed Democratic socialist, is too far to the left to win against a Republican in the Nov. 8 presidential election.

"We cannot afford to lose the White House," Bartmann wrote in the email, seen by Reuters.

The email drew a string of affirmative responses, also seen by Reuters.

Biden announced in October that he would not seek the presidency, despite support from a group of backers under the name "Draft Biden 2016." But whispers have continued among some donors who hope that Biden could be convinced to run after all should Clinton’s campaign prove fruitless.

"My sitting on the sidelines has a lot to do with my disappointment that the vice president decided not to get in the race," Patrick Baskette, one of the recipients of Bartmann's email, told Reuters. Baskette, a public affairs consultant in Tampa, Florida, was a special assistant to Biden during his time as a senator.

COMMENT:  The Biden folks may get their way.  The scenario goes as follows:  The FBI report into Hillary surfaces.  Even if she's not indicted, she drops further in the polls.  It's another Clinton scandal, following the mini-scandal, now growing, about Clinton's accepting vast speaking fees from Wall Street firms.  Dem panic increases.  They look at the alternative, Bernie.  But Dem officeholders are already warning of what the GOP will do to Bernie if he gets the nomination – starting with photos of him honeymooning in the Soviet Union.

The Dems turn to the obvious choice, and one backed enthusiastically by Obama, who's looking for a "third term" – Joe Biden.  Joe "reluctantly" comes into the race to save the party.  For once, he's the "elder statesman."  For the nomination, this will work.  I don't think Joe will fare all that well in the general election, if the GOP is united behind a good candidate.

February 6,  2016     Permalink 

FEBRUARY 5,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

OOPS – From The Hill:  Iowa Democratic Party officials have found errors in the its caucus results amid a review, according to The Des Moines Register.  State party officials confirmed to the Register on Friday that the final tally is being altered as discrepancies have been found.  Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton was declared the winner after Monday night’s caucuses, defeating rival Bernie Sanders by just 0.2 percentage points.  "Both the Sanders and Clinton campaigns have flagged a very small number of concerns for us, and we are looking at them all on a case-by-case basis," Iowa Democratic Party spokesman Sam Lau said.  Democratic educational policies have never stressed a knowledge of math, so this isn't surprising.  Plus or minus five percent would meet liberal standards.

BERNIE, WE HARDLY KNOW YE – News outlets are telling us nothing substantial about the man.  Nice, kindly old Bernie.  Man of principle.  But what are his principles?  Everything I've found out is depressing.  Bernie is an honest Marxist.  He served for a time on a kibbutz (collective farm) in Israel before that movement was essentially abandoned by the Israelis, and we now learn that it was the most left-wing kibbutz available in Israel, one that remembered Joe Stalin fondly.  Bernie was also a conscientious objector and never served in the military.  Bernie is to the left of the Democratic Party, of which he is not a member.  Honest yes.  Warm yes.  Correct no.  More to come.

LET'S SEE IF IT WORKS – From Fox:   Officials at an Oklahoma school district said they wanted to send a clear warning to protect against potential attacks, so they put up signs on Monday alerting that staff members could be carrying guns.  The signs were erected at public schools in Okay, according to the Muskogee Phoenix. The town's police department was reportedly disbanded in 2014, and even though sheriff's deputies are available, Superintendent Charles McMahan says that may not be enough.  "We don't want to be a soft target," he told the newspaper.  One sign reads, "ATTENTION: Please be aware that certain staff members at Okay Public Schools can be legally armed and may use whatever force is necessary to protect our students."  It's called "deterrence."  Those who are armed are trained and approved.  They are a first line of defense, which is the line that is missing in most schools.  I'd be curious to see how many schools adopt policies like this, and how effective those policies are.  I'll bet they're very effective. 

HILLARY'S BUSINESS – From The New York Times:   In response to a question at Thursday night’s debate, Hillary Clinton said she would “look into” the possibility of releasing transcripts of her paid remarks to banking, corporate and financial services companies like Goldman Sachs.  But by Friday morning, it did not appear that much looking was underway.  Joel Benenson, Mrs. Clinton’s pollster, gave little indication at a Wall Street Journal breakfast with reporters that the transcripts would be forthcoming.  “I don’t think voters are interested in the transcripts of her speeches,” he said.  Whether they are made public is up to the Clinton campaign. Speaking contracts typically give the speaker the right to decide whether any material from a particular speech can be shared beyond the room. Goldman Sachs, for one, declined to make an on-the-record statement.  We'll soon see how demanding the media is on this.  I can't imagine Hillary wanting these speeches made public, as they were undoubtedly friendly to Wall Street, playing right into Bernie's hands.

February 5, 2016       Permalink

INSANE – AT 9:53 A.M. ET:   How many Democrats actually know what Bernie Sanders stands for?  How many know what the real meaning of "progressive" is?   (Hint:  It's a codeword for the fringe left.)  I don't know the answers to those questions, but I do know that a man who honeymooned in the Soviet Union is catching up to Hillary Clinton in nationwide polling.  From The Hill:  

Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has dramatically cut into the nationwide lead of primary rival Hillary Clinton, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll released Friday finds Clinton leading the race with 44 percent support, compared to 42 percent support for Sanders, within the survey's margin of error.

The last iteration of the poll in December had Clinton leading Sanders nationwide by a 61-30 point margin.

“Democrats nationwide are feeling the Bern as Sen. Bernie Sanders closes a 31-point gap to tie Secretary Hillary Clinton,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

The poll also finds that Sanders matches up better with top Republican primary candidates than Clinton.

In head-to-head matchups the Vermont senator leads GOP front-runner Donald Trump by 10 points, edges Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) by 4 points and ties Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.).

While Clinton still tops Trump by 5 points, she ties Cruz and trails Rubio by 7 points.

The poll also finds that Clinton has a 17-point unfavorable rating, only besting Trump in that category, who has a 25-point unfavorable rating.

Sanders has a 9-point favorable rating nationwide, only trailing Rubio, who is seen favorably by a 14-point margin.

COMMENT:  It's only one poll, but there'll be no celebratory dinner at the Clinton residence tonight.

Look, Sanders hasn't been examined critically by the electorate, and no Republican political guns have thus far been trained on him.  When people understand what he actually believes, I'm guessing the enthusiasm will cool considerably. 

And, by the way, he isn't even a member of the Democratic Party.  Bernie's a socialist.  I can just see the Republican commercials if he should get the nomination:  American men slogging through the battlefields, and Bernie Sanders cozing up to the old Soviets.  Not pretty.

February 5, 2016       Permalink

SHAFTED BY IRAN AGAIN – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:   The Obamans thought the Iran nuclear deal would improve relations with Tehran.  They should think again, or maybe think for the first time.  From Iranian presstv.ir: 

Commander of Iran’s Army Major General Ataollah Salehi says the country will enhance its missile capabilities despite US-led efforts to curb them.

The US government imposed fresh sanctions on Iran over its missile activities, a day after Tehran and the West agreed to implement a nuclear accord, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Washington argued that Iran's missile activities violated a UN Security Council which bars the Islamic Republic from developing missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads.

Tehran says no Iranian missile has such an intention and new sanctions are thus illegal, which also breach the JCPOA.

On Thursday, Gen. Salehi said, "We are neither paying any attention to the resolutions against Iran, nor implementing them."

"We are doing our job and our missile program for the future will be stronger and more precise," he told reporters in Tehran. "This is not a breach of the JCPOA,” he added.

The Army chief said Iran’s weapons present no threat to friendly and neighboring countries.

"They are rather a threat to the enemies of this establishment."

COMMENT:  Iran is getting stronger and stronger, while we cut our defenses.  Eventually, Iran will have those nuclear-capable missiles, if they don't already have them.  They are ICBM's, and the only purpose of ICBM's is to carry nuclear warheads.  You don't send a missile 6,000 miles to explode a hundred pounds of dynamite. 

February 5, 2016       Permalink 

ANOTHER ECONOMIC WARNING – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  And we've been getting more of them every week.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Job growth slowed even more than anticipated in January, the Department of Labor reported Friday, as the economy added 151,000 new payroll jobs and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.9 percent, the lowest such mark since February of 2008.

The month's job creation fell short of the 188,000 mark that private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg had expected.

Friday's report revealed that job growth was faster than previously thought in November, but slower in December. Revisions to those two months' numbers, taken together marked down job growth by 2,000.

With those changes, job creation has averaged 231,000 over the past three months. That rate is well above the 100,000 jobs each month that Federal Reserve chairwoman Janet Yellen has said is more than enough to keep the unemployment rate falling.

COMMENT:  In fact, we need to create 150,000 jobs each month just to keep up with population growth.  This report, added to others, tells us we may be entering a recession or a near-recession. 

Clearly, if the trend continues, it will have political implications in the election.

February 5,  2016     Permalink